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Hello again,
What a beautiful week for many of us so far? Dry air from the continent certainly did it’s stuff, but did you notice how it gradually became hazy of the past day or so. Lots of ‘muck’ got trapped beneath the inversion layer, and now with a change in wind direction cloud has increased for many of us bringing increased cloud and providing a lid for that muck, so some murky hours ahead now. Until the winds changes again!
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Best wishes,
Simon
WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST
Issued: 1000 Thursday 14th February 2008
FRIDAY:
High pressure centred over southern Scandinavia today, extending it’s influence throughout the UK and Ireland. A cold front moving westwards across southern England, with another one approaching from the east.
One of the problems of forecasting over the coming days is deciding where cloud is going to be and, more importantly, where it is going to break. Models aren’t good at handling this so much of what you see will be based on old fashioned forecasting techniques. For proof, take a look at the cloud predictions on many web sites from the GFS.
For many areas it will be a dull start to the day. Some drizzle from the cloud here and there, particularly on windward facing hills and coasts. Plenty of hazy and mist around, with fog along eastern coasts and through the eastern Channel.
Best of any sunshine will be in western Wales, western Ireland and the west of Scotland.
There could be a tendency for cloud to break during the day across central and southern England.
Winds generally E 10-15 (F3-F4) across much of Ireland, Wales and southern England, becoming S-SE 7-10kt (F2-F3) over northern England and Scotland, but perhaps S 15kt (F4) for northeast Scotland, Shetland and Orkney.
Visibility moderate or poor for many areas.
SATURDAY:
Another hard day of cloud forecasting. High pressure still in control of the situation throughout the day. A cold front moves westwards, and behind this may be some drier air, so we could find cloud having a tendency to break up more over southern England and eastern Wales.
Still plenty of cloud, haze and mist around through. The cloud slowly breaking here and there, with the best of the sunshine always towards the west.
Cloud may break too over northern England, with the best of the sunshine again reserved for western Scotland.
Winds will be E-ESE 5-10kt (F2-F3) over southern England, becoming S-SE 5-10kt (F2-F3) over central and northern England, SW 6-10kt (F2-F3) in southern Scotland and SW 15-18kt (F4-F5) across northern Scotland. Watch for increasing winds later in southern Ireland and the far southwest of England, possible to 18kt (F4-F5) here.
SUNDAY:
High pressure in control again on Sunday and I think more chance of cloud breaking, but also and increased risk of fog.
So some dense fog patches to start the day over many inland parts of England and Wales as well as Ireland. This fog may be slow to clear, perhaps early afternoon before the most stubborn patches clear.
Where it does clear it should become a bright day with some good sunny spells. Becoming rather breezy around northern coasts of Scotland and the far southwest of England.
Winds will be generally variable 2-5kt (F2) over much of England, Wales and Ireland, but ESE 17-20kt (F4-F5) in the far southwest of England, and WSW 15-20kt (F4-F5) over the far north of Scotland.
**ends**
Simon Keeling MSc (Appld. Meteorology & Climatology), FRMetS
Weather Consultancy Services
The Weather Centre, 188 Common Road, Wombourne,
Staffordshire, England. WV5 0LT.
Tel: (01902) 895252
http://www.weatherweb.net
http://www.weatherschool.co.uk
http://www.simonkeeling.co.uk
