Weather School Musing...European Jet Stream

[weatherman]

Good morning,

Just wanted to point out how clear the jet stream is on this morning’s satellite pictures.

Have a look here
http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?countr ... &type=loop" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and you can see the jet stream ‘arcing’ through the bay of Biscay and then into central Europe, before dipping southeast into Greece.

You can see how this ties up with the jet stream forecast for Europe at
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... NEL=1&WMO=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Each of these charts is a forecast from the GFS model in 3-hour steps to midday Tuesday. The strong the jet stream, the redder the colour. As this feature lies atop of the country, and starts to head north it brings very strong winds. Gales will be widespread for much of this week, especially in the west.

Roughly speaking when the jet stream is to the south of the country like this the weather is usually unsettled over the UK with strong winds and heavy rain (tell us about it!). If you then click onto ‘Panel 2’ notice how the jet stream weakens over central Europe, but then reforms across Ireland and Scotland by the end of Wednesday. This highlights that the emphasis for the heavier rainfall will shift to the north and northwest of the UK from mid-week. The south then finds itself on the mild side of the jet stream and hence we are forecast to get exceptionally mild temperatures for mid-November in southern England.

Hope that is of interest,
Simon

[sahona]

Am I right in supposing we in Scotland get "the calm before the storm" on Wednesday afternoon?
(I'm trying to rebuild an outhouse at the moment and need to know when not to leave any "flappy" bits!)