Winter Storm this weekend...update

[weatherman]

Hi again,

Latest suggests the low centred over southern Ireland at 6am Sunday, Manchester at midday and then just east of Newcastle-Upon-Tyne at 6pm.

Winds still very strong around the low, severe gales to the south of it. I'd say gsusts of 6kts over SW England and Wales early Sunday morning, these then spreading through the rest of the Channel and across England and Wakles by mid morning, still gusts to 60kt. Remaining windy into the afternoon across Irelandf, England and Wales, a second batch of really strong winds following into the Irish Sea, Bristol Channel and off SW England by late afternoon.

There is consistency between the models too. I am hoping the images show below, the first is UK Met Office chart for midday Sunday, followed by GFS for the same time. Interestingly, the NOGAPS puts the low further north which would mean stronger winds being more widespread earlier the day.

Overall, it's still looking very windy!

Simon

[Nick]

.
Thanks for the update Simon. Looks as though NW Scotland may get off lightly for a change.

I'vew sent you a PM.

[claymore]

Oh how super
Leaving Esbjerg at 18:00 on Saturday to arrive Harwich in time to throw up the Sunday lunch

[weatherman]

Hi again,

06Z model runs now in and starting to diverge a little (but the 06's tend to do that).

GFS now more in line with earlier UKMO, bringing the low over the Midlands at midday, and not as deep. This would certainly mean the winds would not be as strong as earlier predictions.

Ensemble is similar too.

Who would be a forecaster eh????

Simon

[So_Sage_of_Lorne]

Oh how super
Leaving Esbjerg at 18:00 on Saturday to arrive Harwich in time to throw up the Sunday lunch

Should be a nice fast crossing on a broad retch.

[Telo]

Genuine question: is it a winter storm because it's at the beginning of November, or does a winter storm have some particular characteristics?

[weatherman]

Hi Shard,

No, just the first 'proper' storm of the winter really. This is the Atlantic 'door' oopening and sweeping away the remnants of summer.

Simon

[aquaplane]

I'm thinking it could be a good idea to take the cover off my 2 day old boat lean too and just put the cover on the dingy to keep it dry.

The cover is a 4X5m tarp on a frame so I can mend my "bargain" mirror.

[Telo]

This is the Atlantic 'door' oopening and sweeping away the remnants of summer.

Thanks Simon. Funny thing is, it's presently warmer in Scotland than it was in August. We were wearing a full set of fleeces and oilskins in just about every photograph from our summer cruise.....